FireMillen.com

Odds of the Lions winning the Super Bowl: 65/1
Odds of the Lions winning the NFC Championship: 22/1
Odds of winning the NFC North Division: 11/2 (worst of the four teams)

Well, Vegas is not too hot on the Lions this year. But is that really a surprise? The Lions defense was last in the league last year and has not done much to look any better. Our offense is now going to be run focused with two new offensive coordinators (I still don’t understand who is doing the play calling) but we have a bad offensive line and a shaky backfield. Those don’t add up to much production on the offensive side of the ball.

I don’t have high hopes this year for the Lions, especially after last year’s monstrous collapse from 6-2 to 7-9.

Millen still doesn’t have a winning season. You wonder if this will be the year that he is finally fired. But I have given up almost all hope for that happening as well.

After reading my last post of June 21, I realized that it was perhaps a little dark. But the Lions have been in a very dark place for the last decade…perhaps it’s time to try and focus on some of the positives.

Best move of 2008 was the firing of Mike Martz. I am a big fan of offense. I like the passing game and seeing points on the board. But after being spoiled by Kurt Warner, Isaac Bruce, Tory Holt and Marshall Faulk run his offense to perfection, Martz was doomed to fail when he came to the Lions. As with any offense, to succeed, the players need to have the talent…more so in Martz’s offense due to the quick strike passing game he was enamored with. Colletto, the new O-Coordinator, is simplifying the offense, reducing the number of plays and will focus on quality of plays instead of quantity. Still some question marks about Colletto since he hasn’t had that much success…jury is still out on him.

Drafting Calvin Johnson was another good move. Despite the fact the Lions drafted busts Charles Rogers and Mike Williams, getting Calvin to compliment 2004 1st round pick Roy Williams is going to result favorably in the next 2-3 seasons. Johnson was hurt most of last year but we saw flashes of his abilities. That reverse he ran, we saw another speed that was just inhuman. Now, if we could just get a QB to get him the ball!

Rod Marinelli is still preaching stability and looking for guys with football character. And the players drafted this year, Cherilus, Dizon and Smith all seem to be of that caliber. Smith especially endeared himself to Marinelli and to the fans of Detroit about building his “armor” during the off-season. At least it gives the impression that Smith is dedicated to the game year-round. I see him supplanting Bell pretty quick this season.

Ernie Sims continues to be a monster at linebacker. Dizon, while he may need to bulk up a bit, will make the defense that much faster which is a key element in the Tampa-2. His DUI will be a non-event. And I think that Caleb Campbell has the makings of becoming another Jon Lynch. Hard hitting safety that will help in the run-defense. He may not have coverage skills but he could be a linebacker-safety hybrid.

As for predicting how the Lions will finish….geez, that’s a toss up. But with question marks at QB and the offensive line (will Cherilus help improve the line that much?), I don’t see the Lions having a winning record…we can forget about Kitna’s annual 10 win predictions…at best, we can hope for a .500 season.

What I will say is this: If the Lions do not reach at least .500, look for Marinelli and company to be shown the door. We’re heading into Rod’s 3rd year which is about the life-span of a Lion head coach. A caveat to that is unless a big name proven coach is willing to take over, Marinelli will stay. And it has to be someone at the Bill Cowher or Marty Schottenheimer level for that to occur. Perhaps if Herm Edwards is let go by the Chiefs, he could take over in 2009. John Fox of the Panthers would be another consideration but he seems pretty entrenched with Carolina.

Nuff said!

One of our newer members, TNBengal, has taken upon himself to write to William Clay Ford regarding his actions, Matt Millen’s and Tom Lewand’s: TNBengal’s orginal letter

As I read the letter, it dawned on me that TN has vividly pointed out the Triad of Crap that has led the Detroit Lions the past few years.

Let’s take a look at some of the things that TN points out on Tom Lewand that can easily be disputed by what’s said about him from the Detroit Lions website:

1. “An extremely talented, creative and aggressive businessman, Lewand has held a myriad of positions and responsibilities within the front office during his tenure with the Lions, most recently as executive vice president and chief operating officer of Detroit Lions Properties, LLC and vice president of salary cap.”

As of today, the Detroit Lions have only $390,000 of cap space for 2008. This does not include the $4 million they will get this month for previously released players. But even with the additional $4 million, they don’t have a whole lot of room. It still puts them toward the bottom of the league. And yet, the Detroit Lions site calls Lewand the “architect of the salary cap.” With $15.2 million dollars of “dead money” (which essentially means the team is paying salary and bonuses for players no longer on the team). OK, he may be the “architect” of the Lions salary cap, but he’s not a very good one.

2. “Under Lewand’s guidance and direction, Ford Field has become the crown jewel of downtown Detroit and serves as a cornerstone in the city’s urban renewal and revitalization efforts.”

Now forgive me if I’m wrong…I’m all for revitalizing downtown Detroit and seeing Ford Field as a “crown jewel”. But why do the Lions not take the same approach in re-vitalizing the team? Why not make the Lions one of the “crown jewels” of the NFL?

Enough about Lewand. I’m not even going to get into the “F*&K em till next year” email. That alone shows how much of an idiot the Lewand is when it comes to the fans.

While TN does not name Millen in this letter (the obvious distaste for even writing his name is palatable by many members of Fire Millen forum) he does point out that Mr. Ford “fail’[s] to hire General Managers who know what they are doing or at the very least you have created an environment that is not conductive to winning and being successful.”

That sentence alone sums up Matt Millen’s tenure with the Detroit Lions. He doesn’t know what he’s doing, fails to create a winning environment and fails at brining in players to create that environment. In fact, in my opinion, I believe that Millen brings in players based on how he shoots at a dartboard. He must be a lousy shot since he hasn’t hit the bull’s eye in 8 years.

And now on to the leader of the Triad: William Clay Ford, Sr. The bio on the Lions website touts Mr. Ford as some sort of demigod to the City of Detroit: “In an age where ownership changes and franchise moves in professional sports have become alarmingly commonplace, William Clay Ford continues to provide the Detroit Lions organization, its fans and the community with unwavering stability and sound leadership.”

TN asks the most pertinent question of his letter: “Do you even know how to define stability and leadership?” The bio continues on with some other tripe about Mr. Ford’s “commitment is imprinted on virtually every aspect of the organization” and he has “instilled the organization with the right mix of fuel that will power the further development of the entire Lions organization.”

Hello, does anyone in the Lion upper management understand that really good players are needed? Are any of the three members of this Triad of Crap that Lead these Lions really want to bring a Super Bowl to Detroit? And by that, I mean the Lions actually playing in one and not the City of Detroit hosting one?

TN closes his letter to Mr. Ford by asking yet again to sell the Lions for fair market value in the hopes that the ship that has been listing since 1961 can be righted. With that act, that may be the only way that Mr. Ford can bring a championship to Detroit. The most selfless act he can make is to sell the team and allow others to do what he cannot: Bring a Super Bowl trophy to Detroit.

What player will lead the Lions?

Back in December of 2006, I wrote on the Lions saying they needed to find their identity:

SLF Dec 2006 Post

In the 18 months since I wrote that piece, they still don’t have one. Perhaps this year, now that Marinelli has an offensive coordinator on the same page with him, an identity will start to take shape. I suppose what I am looking for is the one player that defines the team. You know, like Brady and the Patriots, LT and the Chargers and Manning and the Colts. The running back or QB that no matter what, they will take over a game, put the team on their shoulders and direct them to a win. The player with the “IT” factor, whatever “IT” is. That undefinable tangent that defines the player and the team and translates to 11-5 to 14-2 seasons, year after year. What player would you associate with the Lions? What player is the undisputed leader of the team?

I believe the Lions are a great quarterback away from being such a team. They have all the weapons in place. Though the offensive line could still be improved, with the new blocking scheme and more emphasis on the run, they aren’t in too bad a shape. But a great quarterback, paired with Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson would bring a balance to the team that it has been so desperately seeking for decades. Toss in Kevin Smith, who I think will get the job done, a back that will move the chains and eat the clock.

They came close in the days with Barry Sanders, Brett Periman and Herman Moore. But Scott Mitchell and a host of QB’s didn’t use Periman and Moore to their full potential. And Sanders, well, what can you say about him that hasn’t already been said? He tried like hell but teams focused on him and dared the Lions to beat them with the pass…and a great quarterback would have done just that. Can you imagine how Farve would have done with those weapons available? Just boggles the mind.

But even during those years, what player really stepped up and led that team? As great as Barry was, he viewed himself as nothing more than a cog…he wasn’t vocal and didn’t get in the face of his team when they needed it. Moore and Periman weren’t exactly the ones to step into that role either. And in my estimation, it’s not a role that a WR should take seeing how they only see the ball 5 to 10 times a game. The QB handles every offensive snap and the running back is getting 30 to 35 touches…they should be the leaders.

What player is going to step up and lead this team? Kitna, while showing a lot of grit and determination, doesn’t have the talent. He may have command of the offense but he doesn’t use CJ and Roy to their full potential. He just doesn’t have the talent to take the Lions to the next level. Check that, he has yet to do any better than .500, save one time 9 years ago, with any team he’s been on. In 12 years, he’s been a mediocre quarterback. Would you trust Kitna with a 1:20 left and you’re down by 6 to drive 75 yards for the winning score? I know I wouldn’t. He has yet to prove he’s able to do that. And if he can’t prove it in 12 years, then I really don’t think it’s going to happen.

Roy Williams should be one of the leaders but not THE leader of the team. If a team is going to depend on a wide receiver to take control, they are going to be in a world of hurt.

Will Kevin Smith be a leader? I don’t think he will be a vocal leader, he will lead more by example. Again, he will be a team leader, but not THE team leader. And being anointed a team leader, as a rookie running back, would do more harm than good.

In my estimation, the Lions have done pretty well in draft and free agency over the past two years. Not great mind you but they have the team going in the right direction. I don’t see the Lions getting into the playoffs this year…the team will do no better than 8-8 and that’s being generous. But this does set the Lions up to find that quarterback that will take them over the top. And in my opinion, I feel that it is the quarterback that has to be THE leader of the team. Coaches will put the players in the best position to be successful but the quarterback has to lead them there. He’s got to be brash, cocky and egotistical but also have the talent to back it up. When he gets in the huddle and tells the offense “we ARE going to score,” that offense has to believe it.

I don’t know much about the quarterback’s that will be available in 2009 thru the draft. But if the Lions finish 8-8, I suspect they will be in the 12 to 18 spot. Right now, the Lions scouting department should be looking at the top quarterback’s in college. They have over a year to pour over stats, look at game film and come up with a list of quarterback’s that they can go for. But the scouts need to do their damn homework and find the quarterback that has the “IT” quality to take the Lions further than they ever have been.

And a quarterback does not have to be a top 10 pick:

Ben Roethlisberger: 1st round pick in 2004, # 11 by the Steelers
Tom Brady: 6th round pick in 2000, # 199 by the Patriots
Drew Brees: 2nd round pick in 2001, # 32 by the Chargers, now with the Saints
Matt Hasselbeck: 6th round pick in 1998, # 184 by the Packers, now with the Seahawks
Tony Romo: Undrafted in 2003, signed as a free agent by the Cowboys
Jake Delhomme: Undrafted in 1997, signed as a free agent by the Saints, now with the Panthers
David Garrard: 4th round pick in 2002, # 108 by the Jaguars
Derek Anderson: 6th round pick in 2005, # 213 by the Ravens, now with the Browns

Each of these players has either taken their team deep into the playoffs or to the Super Bowl. The last Lion quarterbacks to even get to the playoffs were in 1999 with the Charlie Batch and Gus Frerotte combination.

What is it about these 8 quarterbacks that other teams saw that the Lions have not been able to get a handle on since the days of Greg Landry? Who in his day was a pretty darn good quarterback for the Lions and the only Lion quarterback ever to go to the Pro-Bowl. Yeah, Kitna was an alternate, Landry earned the respect of his peers and was elected to go. Big difference.

The Lions, either in the 2009 or 2010 draft had better find that quarterback to lead this team. Kitna is one trade away from being a permanent back-up or he’s out of football. If it wasn’t for the Lions, I really don’t think he would be picked up by a team as a starter. Backup definitely. The jury is still out on Dan Orlovsky and Drew Stanton. Stanton has been touted as a good leader but he may be in the same boat as Kitna. Grit and determination will only take you so far.

But Kitna is in an enviable spot with the Lions right now. He’s extended his career but he isn’t the answer. To be brutally honest, I think Kitna would be a helluva quarterback coach. He knows technique and NFL defenses…he would be a better asset to a team as a quarterback coach than a player….after all, those who can’t do, teach!

I am going to start this posting a little off topic. I was looking up the Tiger stats for this year. The Tigers are 8 games back behind the White Sox (thanks to a 3 game sweep). The Tigers, at a dismal 29-37 have scored 306 runs so far, only two less then the 37-29 Central leading White Sox. The difference? The Runs allowed (Tigers 326, Sox 245) leading to the ever so predicatable cliché: “Offense wins games, defense wins championships”

-Not So Fast

Even the Bears a few years back couldn’t beat the high flying Colts. Then again, the Bucs did beat the Raiders with Rich Gannon with the cannon a few years previous.

Its it the chicken or the egg? Is it Millen or Ford? Is it the bad defense or the yard gettin’ but no red zone scorin offense?

How bout a better question, where is NoMore heading with this?

A good offense makes a defense look better. A good defense makes an offense look better. I used to play flag football (about 30 pounds ago) and I was quite a good blitzer. I would get that qb running and even if I didn’t get the sack chances are my CB’s would get the pick- We were unstoppable. The season had 8 games and I joined in the third game into the season when they were 0-2. I made the pro bowl, both CB’s made the pro bowl, we marched through the playoffs and back to back beat the same two teams they lost to in the beginning of the year to claim the championship. They say it was because of me but I humbly disagree.

It was balance.

We had two of the best CB’s in the league but that didn’t matter if the QB had all day to throw. An argument for better pass rush? Maybe, but what I want to point out is it wasn’t me that won those games, it was the mixer of the good CB’s covering and the pass rush combined that ended up winning the games for us. That put pressure off our QB and he felt okay to air it out once in a while because the other team wasn’t going to score anyways, so it was alright to take a chance, but not to force it.

The point I’m trying to make is a more solid defense should take pressure off the offense. Short term we may be picking up the pieces, maybe hindsight will show us that Marinelli is the man to run this team, or it might show how big of a mistake Millen made (just chalk it up as another one).

Higher up on the ladder- now lets talk Millen & Ford. Marinelli can win in the short term. We might make a playoff run this year even (at least I hope). But long term, theres no hope. I don’t know what their plans are with Williams but whatever it will end up being, they will make the wrong decision. No matter how good Marinelli is he cannot offset the bad of Millen and Ford.

Based on our history since Ford can I realisticly hope for anything else?

Oh well my prediction for the season, 9-7 with a wild card loss……..

Pass the Kool-Aid

I had a column all prepared…but I’m going to save it until next week. I just finished reading an article by Ted Bauer of ESPNTheMag.com.

Open Letter to City of Detroit

Suffice to say, Bauer is coming off as a bully to the City of Detroit. Just as Detroit is basking in the glory of the Red Wings Stanley Cup victory and the Pistons getting to the Eastern Conference Finals for the 6th straight year, Bauer writes and open letter to Detroit, basically saying the city is doomed as far as Detroit sports is concerned.

OK, the Tigers are not living up to their pre-season press clippings. How many times has this happened before? There will be a team that on paper looks as though they should just be given the trophy as the press will pretty much say there’s no reason to play the season. If anything, these types of predictions are curses since all that does is rile up the other teams in the league. But then again, that’s why they play the games. On any given day, any team can and will beat heavily favored teams.

The Red Wings appear to be on the right track to be a ting team for the next few years. I am, admittedly, not in the know as far as hockey is concerned. But the Internet is a valuable source when it comes to looking up information: Here is a team, since 2000, has taken first place in the Central Division, winning the Stanley Cup twice in that time. Doesn’t appear to me there is going to be a decline. In fact, I’m pretty sure that the press will predict the Red Wings as being in the Stanley Cup next season.

The Pistons, as pointed out before, have been in the Eastern Conference Finals for 6 straight years, winning one of two NBA conference finals. Tell me what NBA city wouldn’t want that kind of success. Joe Dumars, who is perhaps the best GM in all of Detroit right now, isn’t allowing the team to get too old. He, as a player, saw how that worked when many of his team mates either retired, got traded away or just plain got old to be effective, including himself. He retired from the game before he began to embarrass himself. But, he carried his knowledge of the game into the Pistons front office and built a yearly contending team. Dumars isn’t afraid to pull the trigger when it needs to be pulled. Firing Saunders and claiming no one is untouchable for next season is evident of that.

Bauer then gives a once sentence descriptions about the NFL in Detroit: “Then there’s the Lions.”

Again, many NFL pundits have predicted the Lions finishing no better than .500 (many of the members of Fire Millen have predicted .500 or worse). But again, that is all based on how the team looks on paper. Who knows? Maybe the Lions will get that gorilla off their collective backs and contend. But I will agree with Bauer regarding the Lions that really nothing more can be said about them due to their performance over the past 8 seasons.

Bauer’s last statement is perhaps the coldest slap in the face to Detroit: “The point’s simple: Detroit’s won The Sporting News “Best Sports City” a couple of times; it’s in contention for “TitleTown” this summer via ESPN platforms. It may win—historically, it’s quite deserving and heck, it is the current home of the Stanley Cup. (Did Kwame Kilpatrick just get to bed? We think so.) However, if you’re a Detroit fan, savor the present; the future just doesn’t seem to hold much promise.”

I will give him credit for stating that he hopes ESPNTheMag.com is wrong. But as far as I’m concerned, I think the future does hold promise. The Red Wings and the Pistons will continue to be contenders in their respective leagues. The Tigers, while may not turn it around this season, will bounce back. It may not be with Leyland at the helm but they will be in contention for sure next season. There is way too much talent for them not to.

Then there’s the Lions. Ah well, to paraphrase a Meatloaf song “3 out 4 ain’t bad.”

The Tigers were supposed to be contenders this year…so far, we have been let down.

The Pistons have given us good seasons the last six years and a championship, but you can’t help but feel let down by getting so close year after year and only making the finals twice.

The Lions….you know that story.

But we always have the Red Wings. Four championships in the last 11 years (10 seasons). While they gave it away on Monday and made it exciting at the end of last night’s game, we are celebrating another championship in Hockeytown.

Congrats to the Wings. Maybe Millen will call up their GM and get some tips.

Since this is the downtime for the NFL, over the weekend, I did some mindless research based on the 4 teams that are currently in the NFC North. I know that many times over the years, these teams played in different conferences and I’ve chosen not to include the Bucs who were in this division at one time. For the most part, the Bears, Pack, Vikes and the Lions have pretty much been in the division since 1961.

All the stats that I gathered are from 1961, the year that WCF purchased the Lions as well as when the Vikings came into the league. I’ll break this down in 10 year increments:

1961 - 1970

The Packers were the elite team of the league for most of the 1960’s with a winning percentage for the decade of 69.63%. The Lions weren’t bad at 53.49% but most of the success came in the early 1960’s with players from the late 50’s still playing. Bears came in at 50.37% and the Vikes at a respectable 48.12% which is pretty darn good for only being in the league for 10 years and made their 1st Super Bowl in 1969.

1971 - 1980

The decade of the Vikings. Winning at a 66.67% clip, they made 3 of there 4 Super Bowl appearances. Granted, they never won any of them but at least they got there. As for the rest of the teams, none finished above 50% as the Pack began its 20 years of futility, coming in with a winning percentage for this decade of 40%, the Bears came in at 42.07% and again, the Lions were the second best team of the decade winning at a 45.45% rate.

1981 - 1990

This was the decade for the Bears. From 1984 to 1988, the Bears won/loss record was an astounding 62-17, a 78.48% winning percentage with a Super Bowl win in 1985. Their winning percentage of 63.16% clearly topped the rest of the teams for this decade. Vikings were second at 48.68%, the Pack slightly improving over the last decade with a 44% rate and the Lions at a paltry 38.41%

1991 - 2000

While this is considered the glory years for the Lions with most of their playoff appearances since Ford bought the team, making the playoffs 6 times (with the only win coming in 1991, the memorable 38-6 pounding over the Cowboys) it was the Packers coming back to glory winning 60% of their games. The Vikings topped that percentage coming in at 62.50% but with 2 Super Bowl appearances, I call this another decade to the Pack. The Bears fell hard from the 1980’s going from 63.16%, dropping 21.28 percentage points to finish the 1990’s at 41.88%

2001 - Present

The Dark Days of Matt Millen begin…bad drafts, bad free agent signings and just bad management all around, the Lions are, so far this decade, just plain awful. Winning only 31 of 112 games, the Lions winning percentage from 2001 to now is only 27.68% The Packers, while not getting into any Super Bowls, are at a 62.16% winning clip, the Bears, rebounding nicely from the last decade with a Super Bowl appearance coming in at 53.15% and the Vikes, a little erratic from 2001, still are playing at a 45.95%, 18.27% better than the Lions despite all the turmoil and “parties” they have endured.

I know some of the issues that have been floating around have been the number of playoff appearances the Lions have had. These stats are the number of years, not games, each team made the playoffs and the percentage is based on 46 seasons of how many times teams did make the playoffs:

Vikings – 24 out of 46 years, 52.17% of the time. Talk about consistency!

Packers – 18 out of 46 years, 39.13%. If they hadn’t had that stretch of 20 years of lousy teams, no telling how good they could have been. Probably would have been the first team to win 6 Super Bowls.

Bears – 14 out of 46 years, 30.43% of the time. Despite all the glorification, most of their domination came very early. With the exception of the 1980’s, the Bears from 1961 to present really hasn’t been all that special.

Lions – 9 out of 46 years, 19.57%. The played a mere 10 playoff games, winning only one time. That one win was in Detroit…all 9 playoff losses have come on the road…and we all know how bad the Lions are on the road. Which is why Kitna wanting 10 wins to make the playoffs don’t mean a damn thing. They have to build a team to win 12 - 14 games to get more home games during the playoffs. But since 1961, the Lions have only 12 games one time, in 1991 which they also had that one playoff win.

As for coaching, since 1961, here are the number of head coaches each team has had. Note the Lions are the only team to have interim coaches.

Lions - 15 (this includes 2 interim coaches) Taking out the 2 interim coaches, Lions head coaches have an average shelf life of 3.5 years.
Packers - 10 Average tenure of head coach is 4.6 years.
Bears - 9 Bear coaches last 5.1 years
Vikings - 8 Viking coaches stick around for 5.75 years.

Taking into consideration about what makes a team successful, over these past 46 seasons, there is a direct correlation of winning percentage and the tenure of the coaches.

Vikings: 8 coaches and a 46 year winning percentage of 52.77%
Packers: 10 coaches and 46 year winning percentage of 54.74%
Bears: 9 coaches and 46 year winning percentage of 49.93%
Lions: 13 full time head coaches and 46 year winning percentage of 43.88%

NOTE: From 1930 to 1960, the Lions had 10 head coaches in 30 years and a winning percentage of 53.04%. They played in 8 playoff games, winning 6 of them. Tell me that William Clay Ford, Sr cannot be linked to the dismal failure the Lions are now!

The Bears, Vikings and the Packers all have had their decades. Each of these teams have multiple Super Bowl appearances. Each of these teams, for the success they had in their respective decade, had multiple high double digit win seasons. Each team, built for success for a decade.

The Lions build teams to win for a year and then its just barely…its no wonder Lions fans have beaten their heads against a brick wall for the past 46 years…it feels better than rooting for the Lions!

When will the Lions have a decade? Mr. Ford? Mr. Millen? Would either of you like to respond to the question?

Didn’t think so…